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A dynamic log-linear regression model to forecast numbers of future filings at the European Patent Office

Paper ID Volume ID Publish Year Pages File Format Full-Text
37804 45634 2015 9 PDF Available
Title
A dynamic log-linear regression model to forecast numbers of future filings at the European Patent Office
Abstract

•We model patent filings from R&D expenditures and GDP split into trends and cycles.•38 source countries are used and standardisation of data via logarithms is discussed.•Differenced data and business cycles improve the goodness of fit and the forecasts.•Adding future GDP shocks, within certain margins, has limited effects on forecasts.•Models fitted only on 7-year time windows fit well and confirm a 5-year lag for R&D.

An econometric model is applied to forecast future levels of patent filings at the European Patent Office out to 2019, using historical data from 1990 to 2013 with 28 source country terms. Descriptors include Research and Development expenditures and Gross domestic product, where the latter is split into trend and business cycles components. The model is applied to logarithmically standardised data.The effects on the forecasts of additional future positive and negative stimuli to the GDP components are considered. Reasonable forecasting accuracy is found. Using a series of shorter historical data windows may give improved accuracy for short term forecasts.

Keywords
Business cycles; Lognormal; Gross domestic product (GDP); Patent filings forecasts; Research and development expenditure (R&D); Linear model
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A dynamic log-linear regression model to forecast numbers of future filings at the European Patent Office
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Publisher
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect
Journal: World Patent Information - Volume 42, September 2015, Pages 19–27
Authors
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Subjects
Physical Sciences and Engineering Chemical Engineering Bioengineering
Get Full-Text Now
Don't Miss Today's Special Offer
Price was $35.95
You save - $31
Price after discount Only $4.95
100% Money Back Guarantee
Full-text PDF Download
Online Support
Any Questions? feel free to contact us